Simulating a Shift to E-Delivery: Impacts on Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
Research Team
Matthew Bhagat-Conway, Ph.D., University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
What is the issue? STRIDE Project K5 created better estimates of shopping vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S., using detailed travel survey data. These estimates provide a valuable baseline against which to compare estimates of the transport impacts of e-shopping and delivery services. The proposed project represents a logical extension, using the information gathered in Project K5 to provide estimates of the effect of a shift to e-shopping on travel outcomes.
What will this project accomplish? This current project (F6) has three components. First, a regression model will be estimated using the data from Project K5 to predict the marginal VMT of a shopping trip, based on attributes of the destination and the trip maker. Second, a predicting online and in-person shopping and the tradeoffs or complementarity between them will be constructed based on COVID Future survey data. Third, the lessons learned from these models will be integrated into a regional travel demand model to improve forecasting of shopping travel, especially as e-shopping becomes more prevalent. I anticipate that this project will result in more thorough consideration of shopping travel and e-shopping in infrastructure planning.